Recent clashes among rival opposition groups in Syria's north-west province of Idlib reveal a change in alliances that particularly threatens the survival of al-Nusra Front (ANF), experts and activists tell Diyaruna.

For more than a week, ANF, now known as Fatah al-Sham Front, has been battling former opposition allies amid an escalation of fighting in rural Idlib.

Some opposition groups have sided with ANF, while others have announced their support for former ANF ally Ahrar al-Sham .

"This is a war within the uprising," Aymenn al-Tamimi, an expert in extremist movements told AFP on Tuesday (January 31st), noting that the current clashes pit hardliners against those seeking a political solution to the conflict.

This could escalate into an existential war that ANF would not be willing to lose, he said.

The designation of ANF as a terrorist group under its new aliases is partly responsible for this reshuffle of allegiance, experts told Diyaruna.

Some factions are opting to merge with Ahrar al-Sham to form a moderate force capable of garnering international support and recognition, they said, in order to be able to participate in the next phase of the political solution in Syria.

Two camps emerge in Idlib

"The security situation in rural Idlib deteriorated precipitously on January 22nd, after ANF attacked the headquarters of Jaish al-Mujahideen and a number of other factions," said media activist Mahmoud Hajj Kamel of Idlib.

The situation settled down after the groups targeted by ANF announced their merger with Ahrar al-Sham, he said.

These factions include Jaish al-Islam, al-Jabha al-Shamia, the Fastaqim Kama Umirt Union, Jaish al-Mujahideen and Suqour al-Sham Brigade, he added.

"The clashes resulted in ANF seizing control of the Idlib central prison after the withdrawal of Suqour al-Sham elements, who are loyal to Ahrar al-Sham," he said.

ANF also attacked areas controlled by Free Syrian Army (FSA) affiliate Jaish al-Mujahideen, and took control of the towns of Anadan, al-Zerbeh and Halazon, he said; while ANF-allied Jund al-Aqsa captured a large number of towns in the Jabal al-Zawiyah area, including Hizareen, Abdeta, Ablin and Balshoun.

"On the other hand, ANF lost many areas that were under its control, most notably Maarat al-Numan in southern rural Idlib, in addition to the towns of Ihsim, Mareian, Deir Sunbul, Shnan and Banin," he said.

"The violent clashes and battles that took place between ANF and the other armed factions were expected by everyone in Idlib, in view of the tension that has been simmering in the region in the past months," he said.

Emirate dream fades

The conflict among opposition factions in Idlib is not surprising, given the multiplicity of views and inability of any one group to dominate, said terror group specialist Maj. Gen. Wael Abdul Muttalib, a retired Egyptian military officer.

"With dozens of opposition factions assembled in the Idlib region, it was to be expected that the situation would eventually explode," he told Diyaruna.

This situation has not been favourable to ANF at all, he said, noting that the disarray has threatened its ability to exercise full control over certain areas.

It also has threatened ANF's dream of establishing an Islamic emirate, for which the group had already begun laying the foundation, he added, by rolling out its harsh interpretation of sharia in the areas under its control.

As for the talks taking place outside Syria , Abdul Muttalib said "the international position regarding ANF has become almost unified in labeling it a terrorist group, and thus excluding it from any [peace] talks is a foregone conclusion".

This is despite ANF’s claim that it has disassociated itself from al-Qaeda , he said.

Factions break away from ANF

"Everyone, including civilians and fighters, knows full well that ANF has become just like the 'Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant' (ISIL)," said Sumer Agha, a media activist with the local co-ordination committee Salamiyah who has been following the situation in Idlib.

Like ISIL, he told Diyaruna, ANF "is being targeted with airstrikes and military operations as it is not included in the ceasefire deal".

ANF and ISIL were excluded from the Astana talks, he said, and ANF's initial reaction was to accuse the groups participating in the talks of working against it, fighting it and aligning with the international coalition.

"The actual tension on the ground and signs of the looming battle between the factions began to be felt when [all groups] went into a state of alert as soon as the announcement of the names of the factions involved in the Astana talks was made and the news of ANF’s exclusion spread," he said.

Consequently, all factions are working to distance themselves from ANF and join Ahrar al-Sham, which has been able to draw numerous factions to confront ANF at the same time that operations are under way to drive it from Idlib, he said.

ANF emirs and fighting units are "very concerned" by attempts to defect to Ahrar al-Sham, he said, as the group's fighters have clearly "grasped the deteriorating situation ANF is in after its exclusion".

To address this concern, ANF has been checking the identity documents of its elements at security checkpoints, particularly its Syrian elements, he said, and has been preventing them from leaving ANF-controlled areas.

Idlib residents describe a heightened state of anxiety among ANF elements, he said, adding that this is true of both its Syrian and foreign fighters.