As Iraqi forces close in, the "Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant" (ISIL) has been preparing its fighters and followers for the shock of losing Mosul via shifts in the propaganda it is producing, Iraqi officials and experts tell Diyaruna.

There has been a tactical change in ISIL’s messaging that appears to anticipate its resounding defeat and the resulting psychological fallout, which could spell the end of the group as a fighting force, they said.

ISIL leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi's latest audio message betrays his fear of "low morale" among his followers , Iraqi MP for Ninawa province Abdulrahman al-Lwaizy told Diyaruna.

In his speech, posted online on November 3rd, al-Baghdadi uses language that presages ISIL's defeat and indicates his dreams of being caliph have gone up in smoke, he said.

Recent speeches from other ISIL leaders or mosque imams have focused on al-Raqa as "the capital of the caliphate" rather than Mosul, he added, to send the message that the loss of Mosul does not mean the loss of the "caliphate".

"ISIL is well aware that its days in Mosul are numbered and it is now setting the stage for its followers to accept defeat and absorb the shock," al-Lwaizy said.

The group, which has wronged Islam, Sunni Muslims and Arab tribes through its heinous crimes, particularly against religious minorities, has lost its support in the communities where it has established its rule and is in steep decline, he added.

"The locals who suffered under ISIL and are now free of them, seek to keep their liberated areas clean of terrorists," he said. "People will not be fooled again by ISIL’s propaganda machine and have learned their lesson well."

ISIL deception laid bare

ISIL has spared no effort in harnessing its propaganda machine to vilify those who oppose the group in words or deeds, Iraqi Scholars Association head Sheikh Khalid al-Mullah told Diyaruna.

"In the same way they used religion as a cover for their barbaric practices, they are now using the same approach to save what they have left," he said.

" Their false caliphate which they tried to deceive people with has completely collapsed in Iraq and will never rise again," he said. "No matter what they say, people will not fall for it."

The group knows this, al-Mullah added, and it now seeks to use its propaganda to protect its last stronghold in the Syrian city of al-Raqa.

ISIL is in military and moral decline and "no mendacious propaganda can save it", former Ministry of Interior spokesman Abdulkarim Khalaf told Diyaruna.

"We are not interested in what ISIL has to say or whether the capital of its alleged caliphate is Mosul or al-Raqa," he said. "What is important for us is on the ground victories scored by our troops against this extremist group."

"ISIL’s mask slipped a long time ago and we can see its ugly face," he said. "People find it hard to believe its propaganda after being burned by the fire of terrorism."

Losses exposed

Since the start of the battle to liberate Mosul, Khalaf said, ISIL has lost its top commanders and fighters, in addition to most of its weapons and vehicles.

ISIL can no longer hide its losses in Mosul, Joint Operations Command spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Rasul told Diyaruna.

"The group is trying to assure its followers that its alleged caliphate is alive but it is actually dying," he said, noting that strategic areas such as Hamam al-Alil south of Mosul are now under the control of the Iraqi forces .

"To the north of the city, we managed to take back Sadat Bawiza area and we opened al-Shallalat road," he added. "From the west, we reached the intersection between Hatra and Ain al-Jahash."

"As for the east and south-eastern parts, forces advanced towards the left bank of Mosul and liberated several neighbourhoods, including al-Quds, al-Khadra, al-Akha, al-Intessar and al-Zahra," he said.

The road between Mosul and Kirkuk has been reopened and the villages of al-Zab area also have been liberated, Rasul added.

"Our plan to liberate Mosul is going smoothly, and we continue to be victorious on the battlefield," he said.